Valuation

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Monday 8 March 2010 12:11 pm

Every day I hear from the ?experts? on CNBC-TV and the radio gurus that the way to buy stocks is find value. One man?s Rembrandt is another man?s connect-the-dots and fill in the spaces. Valuation is like beauty. It is in the mind of the beholder.

If valuation is the key to buying stocks then there should be some kind of a formula to determine what is undervalued and over-valued. In every industry there are formulas for standards of performance. For cars we want to know the zero to 60 miles per hour in how many seconds. For soap we want it to be 99 and 44/100 percent pure. For alcoholic beverages it could be how long it has been aged. And on and on.

Yet in the stock market we have no hard and fast set of rules by which to judge a company performance. Ah, and there?s the rub! No matter how good a company performance might be it may have no bearing on the price performance of the stock. You can find good companies that are within a sector that is doing poorly and yet one company can be making huge profits and sales, but the stock price is going nowhere. There need not be any correlation.

When you are in a bull market almost every stock goes up ? even the dogs. When you are in a bear market almost every stock goes down ? even the best ones. We ended an 18 year bull market in 2000 and almost without exception every stock headed for the exit.

Bull and bear markets follow relatively standard patterns of about 16 to 18 years up and 16 to 18 years down and the valuations go right along with them. If you own stocks or especially index funds during the bear periods you will be lucky to have broken even at the end of the 16-year cycle. Cash in your mattress will outperform market returns while the bear is in charge.

During these bear times there will be periods when the market will have a nice advance such as the one we saw start in 2003. These intermediate rises can ultimately bring many investors back into the market only to lose it when the rally is over and true valuation returns.

One valuation measurement for the overall market is the Price/Earnings ratio of the S&P500 Index. The median number for the historic purposes has been around 14. Today it is running about 21 which is considered high. When bear markets end the P/E can be about 6 or 8. There are other factors to be considered when buying any stock or fund, but the one thing that is most important is to have an exit strategy. Without one you will give back your profits.

No one knows exactly where the top or bottom of a market move will be. Knowing conventional valuations is one tool to help your buying and selling decisions.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

How To Find Value In No Load Mutual Fund Investing

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Sunday 7 March 2010 8:11 pm

What are you thinking when it comes to your no load mutual fund selections? Are you saving pennies and sacrificing dollars?

Are you spending your time looking at expense ratios, analyzing Morningstar ratings and searching for funds with low fees and no 12b1 charges? If you are like most people, you know these things in and out. You’ve spent hours evaluating them, and your chosen mutual funds cost little to purchase and maintain. But they still don’t perform to your hopes and expectations.

So, why is this happening? Because this kind of investing focuses on cost as opposed to value.

Investors with this philosophy have usually interviewed numerous advisors. But instead of trying to find someone suitable with a sensible approach, they only want to know who has the lowest fees. That’s like going to the cheapest auto repair shop and getting the best price, but your car still doesn’t run well.

Then there are the investors who call or email me wanting a recommendation on a no load mutual fund. They want one with no 12b1 charge, but they completely ignore the issue of how the fund might perform.

Both these kinds of investors spend their time trying to save pennies and in the process they are losing dollars. Instead of falling into the penny wise, dollar foolish trap, here are some ideas that will assist you in evaluating the end profit rather than just the short term saving.

1. Shift your focus from penny pinching to looking at the big picture: What can a mutual fund or an advisor do for you, not how much does it cost? Why? If you buy a given no load mutual fund at the right time and it gains a tidy 15% for you over a 6 week period, would you really care about the costs? If a mutual fund?or an advisor for that matter?can give you superior performance and an increase of several percentage points over your bargain price pick wouldn’t you pay an extra 0.25%?

2. Consider finding a fee-based investment advisor who uses a facts-based methodology and has a track record indicating those kinds of returns. For example, in my own practice I used a trend tracking approach to get my clients into the market on April 29, 2003. Plus, our research and homework led us to recommending funds that gained anywhere from 11.50% to 22.00% over the following 6 week period. How did you do during that time? Do you think any of my clients care whether one of these funds has a small 12b 1 charge? Or whether they have the lowest expense ratios in the industry? I know they don’t.

The bottom line is to look at costs as balanced by performance and that’s where you find value. Then seek true value not simple savings, enjoy healthy dollar-level returns and don’t sweat the pennies.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

How To Evaluate Load Vs. No Load Mutual Funds

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Sunday 21 February 2010 4:11 am

If you have been dealing with mutual funds for any length of time, you undoubtedly have faced the question of which is better: Load Funds or No Load Funds. If you are new to investing, load simply refers to the commission paid to the broker selling the fund. No load means there is no commission on the purchase or sale.

Most discussions in the past have centered exclusively on performance comparisons. Even rating services like Morningstar have occasionally chimed in with their opinion. However, rather than focusing only on performance, there are some other issues I consider far more important:

  • Who is selling load funds and why?

  • Who markets no load funds?

  • Which one is right for you?

    Who is selling load funds and why? Most load funds are being sold through brokerage houses, financial planners and Registered Representatives. With few exceptions, most of those folks operate on the basis of selling as much product as possible. They collect their commissions up front, as a back end charge, or both (usually in the range of 5 – 6%). Whether you make money or not is not their primary concern. What matters most to those operating under this approach is how often you buy?and thereby generate new commissions for them.

    Who markets no load funds? No Load funds are either marketed directly by the mutual fund companies or, more commonly these days, offered through discount houses like Schwab, Fidelity, and many others. The advantage to this is that you have an unlimited choice of funds in one place and don’t have to open separate accounts for each mutual fund family that you are considering.

    Most fee based investment advisors, like myself, have independent relationships with such major discount firms and are able to offer clients just about any no load mutual fund available. They receive no compensation from the firm and only get paid by the client at a pre-determined fee arrangement. Under this arrangement, there is no hidden motivation to sell you a particular fund or to try and sell more in order to get a larger commission.

    Which one is right for you? Whether you prefer dealing with someone selling load funds or an advisor getting you into no loads, let me make one thing very clear: You can make money or lose money either way! Why?

    Let?s assume for the moment that there is no difference in performance between the types of funds?some of either kind will do well and some of either kind won’t. What then determines the successful outcome of you buying either a load or a no load fund?

    The key is the advice you?re getting. And the fact is that many brokerage houses and Registered Representatives tend to be more interested in their profits than yours. Their investment advice is generally centered around Buy and Hold or dollar cost averaging and similar financially questionable recommendations. Hardly ever will you receive advice about when and why you should exit the market, either because of accumulated profits or to limit your losses. Getting out of the market is simply not in their best interest, though it may be in yours.

    I must confess that, as a fee based advisor, I am somewhat biased and I prefer no load funds for my clients. I believe that this type of arrangement is best for all parties involved. It allows me to avoid any conflict of interest and to work exclusively for my clients? financial benefit. And the better my clients do, the better I do.

    I am able to choose no load funds and make buy decisions solely on the basis of my mutual fund trend tracking methodology. Following its signals, I can get clients into the market or out of it as often as is necessary to maximize profit or protect assets. And because I work with no load funds, other than a very occasional short term redemption fee, there are no transaction charges no matter how many times we move into or out of the market.

    If market conditions dictate that we stand aside in a money market for an extended time in order to avoid a bear market (as was the case from 10/13/2000 to 4/28/2003), I can advise that because it is in the best interest of my client. I am always thinking about what will benefit my client, not worrying about lost commissions. (Please see my article ?How we eluded the Bear in 2000? at http://www.successful-investment.com/articles12.htm.

    Bottom line: Load fund vs. No Load mutual fund shouldn?t be the issue. Having a methodical plan and reliable advice as to when to buy and when to sell is far more important and will help you to secure a prosperous financial future.

    ? by Ulli G. Niemann

    About The Author

    Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has written about methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He avoided the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless people make better investment decisions. Subscribe to his free newsletter: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

  • MALAYSIA: An Asian Retirement Paradise

    Posted by Mutual-Funds | Hotel Review | Wednesday 22 July 2009 10:54 pm

    Asia’s best-kept secret for expatriates, Malaysia has a vibrant mix of foreign and indigenous tribal cultures, creating a veritable melting pot of peoples, traditions and religions.

    A sizable enclave of foreigners (Brits, Americans, Australians, and Canadians) live full time or maintain holiday homes in Malaysia, and you’ll find that just about everybody speaks English, since its compulsory in local schools.

    Not only are three world-class playgrounds (Thailand, Bali, and the Philippines) all within a few hour’s travel from Malaysia, but with miles of white sand coastline, tropical islands, and beachfront property galore, it has all the makings of a fairy-tale setting.

    Despite being the capital of a developing nation, Kuala Lumpur is a modern cosmopolitan with clean streets and sidewalks and every modern convenience to found in New York or London. Home to the tallest building in the world, there are also FedEx and UPS offices, international banks, English cinemas and bookstores, western-style supermarkets, French and German bakeries, Chinese, Indian, and Italian restaurants, gourmet coffee, Cuban cigars, Internet caf?s and some of the best shopping in the world!

    One of the few things that lend a Third-world feel to the capital are the open-air night market, where local merchants peddle everything from fresh fruit and vegetables, to meat and fish, to exotic animals and traditional handicrafts.

    All the major newspapers are available at newsstands, including the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the Financial Times, the International Herald Tribune and The New York Times. Cable and satellite TV provides access to a wide variety of English-language programming, including CNN, the Discovery Channel, Filmnet and many more.

    Despite the local Muslim population not drinking alcohol, Kuala Lumpur has some of the liveliest nightlife in the region and there are more than a fair share of clubs and bars, where tourists, expatriates and locals alike mingle and party. Though the official religion of Malaysia is Islam, great tolerance is shown for other religions, with many beliefs being represented and their adherents practicing openly, including Christians, Hindus, Buddhists, Taoists and Jews (the nearest synagogue is in neighboring Singapore).

    Compared with other major Asian cities (Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong, for example), Kuala Lumpur is downright cheap. Even in the over-priced tourist spots you can get a good meal for two for around $20. Outside of these places, a 3-course meal for two with all the trimmings, including drinks, will set you back no more than $10?a doctor’s visit $8 to $15 and live-in domestic help $200 a month.

    Rental properties are readily available and not overly expensive by American or European standards. The cost of 2-bedroom rental apartments begins at around $225 per month, with 3-bedroom houses starting at $35,000. Naturally, comparable housing in expatriate communities or the luxurious suburban homes that date from British colonial period can set you back considerably more.

    Other properties recently on offer include:

    A 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom, 725-square-foot apartment with a dining room, a kitchen, ceiling fans, a walk-in closet, and parking, costs $45,215.

    A small two-story bungalow with 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a kitchen, a living room, and a dining room going for $35,700.

    A penthouse apartment, close to downtown, with a sea-view and a 350-sqare-foot terrace. It comes fully furnished and has 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a kitchen, and a dining room. The asking price? $75,000.

    A spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 2500-square-foot condominium with a large living room, an elegant dining room, a fully equipped kitchen, and a pantry, for $125,250.

    Though there are expensive restaurants and accommodations, there’s simply no reason for you to check into a five-star hotel when you can stay in a clean, friendly hotel in the city center for $40 a night where every meal costs less than $5 per person.

    CRIME-FREE AND FOREIGNER FRIENDLY

    Of course, cheap living shouldn’t be the only deciding factor when choosing a new home. As well as being very affordable, Malaysia is safe.The government’s real no tolerance policy means street crime is virtually nonexistent.

    The Malaysian government, through its Silver-Haired Program, offers expatriate resident retirees extremely attractive benefits. Outside of nationals of Israel and Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro), the program is open to citizens of most countries. To qualify, you need only be over 50, show you can bring a guaranteed income of about $1300 per month into Malaysia (or open a savings account in Malaysia with $40,000), and have a local sponsor (which can easily be arranged).

    Penang, a small island off the northwest coast, has been called the Pearl of the Orient and its beaches are a favorite tourist destination. The coastline is also dotted with many small, quiet seaside villages. The tropical rainforests and jungles offer many opportunities for exploring lush mountains, trekking through the jungle, or even taking a riverboat safari. The bountiful sea surrounding Malaysia provides for some of the best scuba diving and fishing anywhere in the world (Malaysia’s seas are home to the Black Marlin, tuna, mackerel, sailfish, barracuda and a host of other species).

    PRACTICAL BENEFITS

    Medical care is good, with excellent hospitals and clinics in all the major towns. Doctors speak English, and the majority gained their qualifications in Western Europe or North America.

    Although foreign residents must arrange private health insurance, visiting tourists who have an accident are entitled to free emergency treatment in public hospitals. A consultation with a private doctor in most cases will cost just $8 to $15.

    When it comes to banking, management methods and the range of services offered closely follow the British model. Plus, most major world banks have full-service branches in Malaysia.

    Many expatriates living here off investment income keep their cash growing tax free in Labuan, an offshore tax haven administered by Malaysia, and then bring into the mainland what’s needed for living expenses. Labuan is also perfect for anyone looking for a private, offshore bank account, a tax-free corporation, a trust, or other offshore structures.

    Led by Malaysian Airlines, the national carrier, the island is served by many major airlines, linking it the world through its international airports. A good network of modern roads covers the distances between towns, and Malaysian telecommunications are among the best in the world.

    If you’ve ever thought about living overseas, you owe it to yourself to investigate Malaysia.

    About The Author

    Copyright 2005 by Shannon Roxborough

    Shannon Roxborough is an international lifestyle expert with close to 20 years experience. He has helped hundreds of clients with overseas living, retirement and travel matters. Visit his website at: www.TheGlobalLife.net

    askinternational@aol.com