Every day I hear from the ?experts? on CNBC-TV and the radio gurus that the way to buy stocks is find value. One man?s Rembrandt is another man?s connect-the-dots and fill in the spaces. Valuation is like beauty. It is in the mind of the beholder.

If valuation is the key to buying stocks then there should be some kind of a formula to determine what is undervalued and over-valued. In every industry there are formulas for standards of performance. For cars we want to know the zero to 60 miles per hour in how many seconds. For soap we want it to be 99 and 44/100 percent pure. For alcoholic beverages it could be how long it has been aged. And on and on.

Yet in the stock market we have no hard and fast set of rules by which to judge a company performance. Ah, and there?s the rub! No matter how good a company performance might be it may have no bearing on the price performance of the stock. You can find good companies that are within a sector that is doing poorly and yet one company can be making huge profits and sales, but the stock price is going nowhere. There need not be any correlation.

When you are in a bull market almost every stock goes up ? even the dogs. When you are in a bear market almost every stock goes down ? even the best ones. We ended an 18 year bull market in 2000 and almost without exception every stock headed for the exit.

Bull and bear markets follow relatively standard patterns of about 16 to 18 years up and 16 to 18 years down and the valuations go right along with them. If you own stocks or especially index funds during the bear periods you will be lucky to have broken even at the end of the 16-year cycle. Cash in your mattress will outperform market returns while the bear is in charge.

During these bear times there will be periods when the market will have a nice advance such as the one we saw start in 2003. These intermediate rises can ultimately bring many investors back into the market only to lose it when the rally is over and true valuation returns.

One valuation measurement for the overall market is the Price/Earnings ratio of the S&P500 Index. The median number for the historic purposes has been around 14. Today it is running about 21 which is considered high. When bear markets end the P/E can be about 6 or 8. There are other factors to be considered when buying any stock or fund, but the one thing that is most important is to have an exit strategy. Without one you will give back your profits.

No one knows exactly where the top or bottom of a market move will be. Knowing conventional valuations is one tool to help your buying and selling decisions.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

On Monday, November 25, 2000 Investor’s Business Daily listed on page B1 the Top 25 Growth Mutual Funds for the last 36 months along with their performance for the year 2000 to date. Only four showed a profit this year of 21% and the other three had increases of 12%, 5%, and 5%. Fifteen had loss of from 10% to 28% and the other 6 were down slightly.

In the column next to them there is a list of Top 25 Growth Funds for the past 3 months for the year 2000 to date. Only 2 had increases in price for the year 2000, 4 were even and all the rest are showing losses for the year.

Now pay attention and think about this next sentence. Not one mutual fund appears in both lists.

What is the significance of this? It very simply tells you that buy and hold is NOT the way to make money with mutual funds.

I have been preaching for years to buy only no-load mutual funds and hold them only as long as they are going up. When they stop going up you sell them (paying no commission) and find another fund that is going up as the place to have your money. In this current bear market the latter is hard to find so what do you do? Put your money in a money market account and don’t worry about the market going down and dragging your investment with it. Protect your capital!

Don’t throw up your hands and say I can’t do that because my broker says to buy and hold – the market always comes back. It is not his money. It is yours. You must be the one to initiate the action to protect your capital. Brokers are not taught how to do this. I know – I used to own a brokerage company.

Brokers have been smart enough to learn, but taught all the wrong things when it comes to investing money. They claim you can’t time the market. WRONG again. They never encourage you to place stop-loss orders so you won’t lose all your money when you buy a new stock or fund and they never encourage you to use a trailing stop to protect the profits you have made.

I know there are people reading this column who have had stocks that have doubled, tripled, even more and now have that same stock that is now selling for less than they bought it.. Where was your broker when all this was happening? If he is so smart why didn’t he tell you to sell at the top? This also applies to mutual funds.

What I am trying to get across is the simple message that you cannot buy and hold. The secret every knowledgeable investor knows is to protect his capital first and then to protect his profits second.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

What are you thinking when it comes to your no load mutual fund selections? Are you saving pennies and sacrificing dollars?

Are you spending your time looking at expense ratios, analyzing Morningstar ratings and searching for funds with low fees and no 12b1 charges? If you are like most people, you know these things in and out. You’ve spent hours evaluating them, and your chosen mutual funds cost little to purchase and maintain. But they still don’t perform to your hopes and expectations.

So, why is this happening? Because this kind of investing focuses on cost as opposed to value.

Investors with this philosophy have usually interviewed numerous advisors. But instead of trying to find someone suitable with a sensible approach, they only want to know who has the lowest fees. That’s like going to the cheapest auto repair shop and getting the best price, but your car still doesn’t run well.

Then there are the investors who call or email me wanting a recommendation on a no load mutual fund. They want one with no 12b1 charge, but they completely ignore the issue of how the fund might perform.

Both these kinds of investors spend their time trying to save pennies and in the process they are losing dollars. Instead of falling into the penny wise, dollar foolish trap, here are some ideas that will assist you in evaluating the end profit rather than just the short term saving.

1. Shift your focus from penny pinching to looking at the big picture: What can a mutual fund or an advisor do for you, not how much does it cost? Why? If you buy a given no load mutual fund at the right time and it gains a tidy 15% for you over a 6 week period, would you really care about the costs? If a mutual fund?or an advisor for that matter?can give you superior performance and an increase of several percentage points over your bargain price pick wouldn’t you pay an extra 0.25%?

2. Consider finding a fee-based investment advisor who uses a facts-based methodology and has a track record indicating those kinds of returns. For example, in my own practice I used a trend tracking approach to get my clients into the market on April 29, 2003. Plus, our research and homework led us to recommending funds that gained anywhere from 11.50% to 22.00% over the following 6 week period. How did you do during that time? Do you think any of my clients care whether one of these funds has a small 12b 1 charge? Or whether they have the lowest expense ratios in the industry? I know they don’t.

The bottom line is to look at costs as balanced by performance and that’s where you find value. Then seek true value not simple savings, enjoy healthy dollar-level returns and don’t sweat the pennies.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

Did you run out to buy that duct tape yet? Don’t forget the plastic sheeting, bottles of water, canned food and a couple of books to read. What are you waiting for? I know – things to get better so you can resume your normal life style.

While you were waiting did you happen to notice what is happening to your investment portfolio, your retirement account? For the past 3 years it has needed duct tape and plastic sheeting to protect it from the poison gas coming from Wall Street. The gases, otherwise known as hot air, are the news flashes the brokers have been telling you. Surely you have heard – the market always comes back, hang in there, you are in for the long term and other such noxious odors have paralyzed investors to keep them from selling. There was one breath of fresh air you have not heard from your broker and is the one bit of pure oxygen that could have saved your account. Listen carefully and you might hear – SELL.

It is a word hardly ever uttered on Wall Street, but one which you should add to your vocabulary if you ever plan to make a profit in the stock market. Brokerage companies don’t want you to sell because they don’t make any money with your account if you are in a money market fund. When your stock or mutual fund started down did you get a call? Even when a stock loses 80% or more of its value they then change their recommendation from Buy to Hold – and you know where you are holding it.

Any fool can buy, but it takes a wise man to sell. Bernard Baruch, one of the most famous traders of all time, said, I always sell too soon. He was enjoying himself reading a paper on a park bench while stocks were crashing in 1929. The DOW lost 89% of it value. We have not been that unfortunate – yet. However, the NASDAQ has dropped almost 80%. If you owned any of those tech stocks and did not have a trailing stop-loss order you have given back all your profit.

It takes more than duct tape to protect yourself from death and destruction and that goes double for the information from brokers and financial planners. If they have kept you in the market these past 3 years with the Buy and Hold mantra don’t you think it is time you plastered some duct tape on them so you can escape that bad gaseous advice? You might not think yourself to be knowledgeable about investing, but surely you would have had enough sense to sell when a stock or fund loses 20, 30, 40% or more of its value. At 50% loss it means it has to go up 100% to get to even. You don’t want to get even; you want to get rich.

Before that poison gas from Wall Street completely kills your account get some fresh air – SELL.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Why? Because I am going to shatter your conventional wisdom as I have many times in previous columns about the lies that Wall Street continues to tell you. This time we are going to go deeper into the economy to unearth the truth about lies the politicians are telling you.

Let?s understand from the beginning that few politicians understand basic economics. Just because they work in Washington does not make them experts about the laws that have been passed or those they vote upon. Politicians do not create jobs or wealth. Don?t feel you are the only one who can?t make head or tail out of government statistics.

The most misunderstood debate today is about OUTSOURCING. ? sending our jobs overseas. From March of 2001 to January of 2004 manufacturing jobs declined by 2.6 million ? a loss of 17%. BUT during that same period there was an increase of 17% in worker productivity and only a loss of 3% in jobs. More goods produced with fewer workers. Those jobs did not go overseas ? only 300,000 did. The majority were lost to better machines and will never reappear. If employment efficiency had not increased we would have even higher unemployment today.

That is why unions hate new machines. Loss of jobs. If a company wants to remain competitive they must be able to produce at the least cost or you won?t have a job. Do you think you would have your job today if your company continued to operate they way they did 5 years ago? Employment continues to increase every quarter even though we lose about 7% or 8% of U.S. jobs every quarter.

Has anyone told you that thousands of foreign companies have opened plants in the U.S? We don?t hear about the small ones only the BMWs, Toyotas and Hondas. According to Peter Drucker, management consultant, we import more jobs than we export. Jobs increased by millions after NAFTA and because of NAFTA.

Will these layoffs continue? It depends upon your industry sector. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there were more mass layoffs (50 or more) during this January than any previous January in history – 239,454 ? 1/3rd of those are in manufacturing.

The U.S. is still not producing enough new jobs to keep us even; that requires more than 150,000 new hires each month.

Political demagoguery blames everyone and anyone who is in office. Whoever the president is is the one to blame ? rightly or wrongly. Every industrialized country today has a problem with excess production capacity and is doing weird things to keep their workers on the production line. We are not the only ones with job losses. That does not make the guy in the unemployment line feel any better.

It is our productivity edge that has kept as many jobs as we have now or it would be a lot worse. Free trade is the answer and not tariffs on other country?s goods. As I have written before tariffs are hidden taxes on the consumer and benefit no one. They have NEVER worked in all of history and make more problems than they solve.

Don?t listen to the political rhetoric. You may not like what I have said, but maybe it will start you thinking.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

1-888-345-7870; al@mutualfundstrategy.com

If you have been dealing with mutual funds for any length of time, you undoubtedly have faced the question of which is better: Load Funds or No Load Funds. If you are new to investing, load simply refers to the commission paid to the broker selling the fund. No load means there is no commission on the purchase or sale.

Most discussions in the past have centered exclusively on performance comparisons. Even rating services like Morningstar have occasionally chimed in with their opinion. However, rather than focusing only on performance, there are some other issues I consider far more important:

Ever have one of those sample boxes of candy? Each little piece is beautifully wrapped in colorful foil or decorated with an interesting design. Taste just one. So good! One more. And another. Before you know it the box is empty. Nothing left.

This upmove in the stock market is very tempting – and could leave you with a tummy ache.

All the market experts are telling you that the bull market is back and to get your buying clothes on. Open your wallet and get in before it is too late. Mr. Schwab says it is dangerous to be out of the market. There are great values out there. These stocks are so low they can’t go any lower. And there is a Santa Claus and an Easter Bunny.

There is one position I do advocate, but most broker and financial planners won’t like it. It is called CASH. No broker believes cash is a position. They say you must always be invested. It seems they have forgotten that investing means making money and another important part of investing means not losing money.

For the last month we have seen the market go up and some of you have seen some of your money come back. Not too much, but some. You want desperately to believe the bull market is back and your winnings will be restored. I sure hope so. Just suppose this is what is called a rally in a bear market and that it will not last. Then what? You don’t want to see your investments slip away again, do you? You don’t know if it is a good idea to sell now or wait. Your broker won’t be any help.

There is a solution. Stay with your stocks and mutual funds as long as they are going up, but sell them if they go down. How? Every Friday after the close you get the settlement prices of your various issues and you then call your broker Monday morning to put in a Good Til Cancelled Stop-Loss Order that is approximately 10% below that closing price. As long as the stock is going up you follow this procedure every week and eventually you will be stopped out. Never move your stop down. You no longer have to guess if this is the highest price that your stock will reach. The stock itself will tell you.

Now you have cash and, if you want to, you can buy a better stock or mutual fund that is going up..

When you pick out a new chocolate (stock) do it carefully and don’t try to eat the whole box at once. Sometimes it is best to put the box (your cash) away so you can come back to it another day.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Let?s first define insanity. It is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. And that is what most investors do and they can?t understand why they are not able to make money in the stock market.

Do these investors need a psychiatrist, a psychologist, a talk with their minister or none of the above? I know, you think they should talk to their broker or their financial planner. Believe me, folks, these two are part of the problem and not the solution.

If they knew the answers everyone would be rich. Let?s go back and look at who taught these mavens how to invest. The Wall Street brokerage houses taught them or rather did not teach them the most basic rules of the game. Why? Because brokerage houses want you to buy (for commission) and they do not want you to sell even though that means another commission. There are two basic reasons they don?t want you to sell and it has nothing to do with that one selling commission.

If you sell you might take your money out of your account and that is one of the things the Maul Street crowd never wants to happen, but the most important is they make money when your account is invested. It is not a lot, but it in a nice steady 1% or more. You are their unspoken collateral in the worldwide money shuffle.

Any broker who suggests a customer sell is usually chastised in some way or just plain fired. A broker who allows large sums of cash to accumulate in customers accounts is told to invest (?) it or hit the road. The house (that?s the brokerage firm) does not want to see customers with big cash balances although there are times when that is exactly where they should be. Remember 2000 to 2003? During that three year period wouldn?t it have been better for your account to have had no stock or fund positions?

Brokers or financial planners are not taught simple methods to protect customer funds. And I mean simple. Too many folks during the 2000 debacle lost 40% of their money and more. There was absolutely no reason for this if basic money management techniques were instituted.

Customers could be made aware that they should not give back more than 10%, maybe as much as 15%, of their portfolio value when the stock market goes in the tank. That occurs on a regular basis. Declines in equities of 20% to 40% happen regularly and no customer should be mesmerized into holding during those periods.

During the 2000-2001 period there were less than 3% recommendations by brokers to sell and those sells were after the stock had crashed about 80% to 90%. It is too late then. Your money is gone. If brokers and financial planners had been taught to advise people to place 10% stop loss orders their retirement accounts they would be much fatter today.

Stop doing the same thing over and over again because of bad advice. Learn to sell when your position goes negative. Don?t be one of the insane.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Yesterday I received my monthly issue of MONEY magazine. This issue has the special feature called ?The Ultimate Investment Club? that highlights their picks for the top mutual fund managers. Let?s see how their members made money for their shareholders.

My readers know that the only thing that counts in my book is performance and performance means they make money and do NOT lose money so I went back to preview their record since these experts took over. When you see the results of this club you will be glad you did not go on any camping trips with them. Here are six who manage stock mutual funds.

As we go along you must keep in mind that fund managers get paid for the amount of money they have under management and not on how much they make for you.

MONEY magazine has given them titles. I will not mention their names, but will give you the fund along with the stock exchange symbol so you can look it up on the Internet at www.bigcharts.com.

?The Survivor? who manages Seligman Communications Fund (SCICX) since it was founded has seen the share price start at $35 and rise to $54 only to fall back to $15 today. He is surviving with your money, but you are not.

?The Value Master? of Legg Mason Value Trust (LMNVX) sure doesn?t know when the value has run out. Under his tutelage the fund has gone from $45 to $78 to $43.

?The Maverick? of CGM Capital Development (LOMCX) has been thrown by his horse. Share price in 1976 started at $10, went to $43 and is now $18. Tough ride for the shareholders.

Now we come to ?The Bargain Hunter? who took over management of Oakmark Select (OAKMX) in 2000 when the market was at its peak. It was $22 and went up (!) to $37 and is now trading at $32. He is the only winner in the group. Congratulations.

Another loser is ?The Opportunist?. This guy should be getting his buy recommendations from cab drivers. He could not do any worse for the Strong Opportunity Fund (SOPVX). It started at $45 and has nothing but a downward journey to its present $29.

For the Brandywine Fund (BRWIX) we have ?The Growth Guru?. The only thing that grew fat was his wallet off of your money. He took over in 1998 at $45 and it went down to $22 in 1999, then up to $53 and is now $20. Actually he can only be given credit for the advance from $45 to $53.

In all fairness to these losers I did not include any capital gains or dividend payouts which during the few good years they had may have been very good, but probably not good enough to keep you at ?even?.

There are all kinds of clubs you can join, but obviously this is not one for you. When you see advertising for various mutual funds or how wonderful some fund manager is please look beyond the hype and check out the performance.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

1-888-345-7870; al@mutualfundstrategy.com

Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a bucket of ?money. Money? They are continuing to fill their bucket with stocks without any consideration to the value of these equities. They are not worried at all as they are buying ?safe? mutual funds.

Everyone knows mutual funds are safe. Jack and Jill know they don?t know how to pick good stocks so they leave that to the fund manager. He is an expert.

When you look at the long term record of 99% of the mutual funds you will see that expertise has been sadly lacking. I hate to remind you of the 2000 to 2003 period, but I must. In fact I must tell you it is going to happen again. Now you want to know when?.and so do I.

And that is the problem with almost every fund manager. As long as the market is going up they can?t do much damage to your account, but when it rolls over and heads down they have no idea how to invest when a bear market is in progress. Not a single one of them will acknowledge that cash is a position.

Cash is a position? They are in shock. Of course they are. If brokerage customers put their money in a money market account while the market is falling it means they do not make any commission at all and if they recommend this to their customers the brokerage manager will fire them because he won?t make any money either. ?Keep your customers fully invested or I?ll show you the door? is the manager?s comment.

You must learn when to sell. Any fool can buy, but it is the wise man who knows when to sell. To see the condition of the overall market one of the best indicators is the SP500 Index. Your broker compares everything he does with the SP500 because it is a broad base of 500 stocks that are widely traded.

The finest indicator is the SP500 Index. Draw a 40-week chart of the closing prices. If you don?t know how ask your broker. He will tell you. Write it down and save it. It is very simple. Have him set up a 40-week Simple Moving Average to appear on that chart. Look at 5 years worth of prices. Immediately you will see that if you are in the market while the 40-week MA is going up you are making money and if you are out of all your positions while the index average is going down you will not lose money. It doesn?t get any easier that that.

Jack and Jill can fill their pail as the market is going up and need not spill their accumulation while they walk confidently down the hill holding their bucket full of cash not equities.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005