How To Find Value In No Load Mutual Fund Investing

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Sunday 7 March 2010 8:11 pm

What are you thinking when it comes to your no load mutual fund selections? Are you saving pennies and sacrificing dollars?

Are you spending your time looking at expense ratios, analyzing Morningstar ratings and searching for funds with low fees and no 12b1 charges? If you are like most people, you know these things in and out. You’ve spent hours evaluating them, and your chosen mutual funds cost little to purchase and maintain. But they still don’t perform to your hopes and expectations.

So, why is this happening? Because this kind of investing focuses on cost as opposed to value.

Investors with this philosophy have usually interviewed numerous advisors. But instead of trying to find someone suitable with a sensible approach, they only want to know who has the lowest fees. That’s like going to the cheapest auto repair shop and getting the best price, but your car still doesn’t run well.

Then there are the investors who call or email me wanting a recommendation on a no load mutual fund. They want one with no 12b1 charge, but they completely ignore the issue of how the fund might perform.

Both these kinds of investors spend their time trying to save pennies and in the process they are losing dollars. Instead of falling into the penny wise, dollar foolish trap, here are some ideas that will assist you in evaluating the end profit rather than just the short term saving.

1. Shift your focus from penny pinching to looking at the big picture: What can a mutual fund or an advisor do for you, not how much does it cost? Why? If you buy a given no load mutual fund at the right time and it gains a tidy 15% for you over a 6 week period, would you really care about the costs? If a mutual fund?or an advisor for that matter?can give you superior performance and an increase of several percentage points over your bargain price pick wouldn’t you pay an extra 0.25%?

2. Consider finding a fee-based investment advisor who uses a facts-based methodology and has a track record indicating those kinds of returns. For example, in my own practice I used a trend tracking approach to get my clients into the market on April 29, 2003. Plus, our research and homework led us to recommending funds that gained anywhere from 11.50% to 22.00% over the following 6 week period. How did you do during that time? Do you think any of my clients care whether one of these funds has a small 12b 1 charge? Or whether they have the lowest expense ratios in the industry? I know they don’t.

The bottom line is to look at costs as balanced by performance and that’s where you find value. Then seek true value not simple savings, enjoy healthy dollar-level returns and don’t sweat the pennies.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

Why Cash Is Your Best Asset With Penny Stocks

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Sunday 7 March 2010 4:11 pm

When you start your Penny stocks trading career you first need to decide how much you are willing to invest. You need to remember that this is not a ?sure-fire? income opportunity and that it is possible that you may lose everything, so be sure to not to invest more than you can afford to lose.

That said when you have decided on an monetary amount, whether it is $100 or $10,000 you should avoid the temptation to put all of it into one or more Penny stocks. But why you ask? Surely the whole point of putting the money into your stock broking account in the first place is to invest it.

Well yes and no. . . if you have all of your funds invested at the same time then you lose a lot in flexibility. You have few options when faced with the need to respond to a rapidly rising market. Or to profit form a newly acquired piece of information that one or more penny stocks are about to move upwards.

If you have invested all of you cash and your present portfolio is flat, the only way to buy into rising penny stocks market and get a piece of the action is to either. Use ?your own money?, for example money that is not part of your penny stocks investment fund (and is not money that you can afford to lose) a very bad idea. Or to get on the phone to your broker and see if can sell some of your existing shares so that you can buy into the rising penny stocks.

The first is obviously not really a good thing to do and is more akin to gambling than investment. After all if you couldn?t make a profit with the first group of penny stocks, why do think you could with the second. A more likely scenario is that you are throwing good money after bad, except that this time it is not money that you can afford to lose.

The second, though more sensible than the first, is not really what trading penny stocks is all about. The whole point is to be able to buy quickly if you think that a stock is about to rise. T sell quickly, as well, when the market seems to have to have peaked for your penny stocks, so that you can maximize your profit and sell before the market starts to fall.

If you keep a portion of your assets as liquid in your stock broking account, then you have the flexibility to move quickly as the market conditions dictate. A penny stocks trader without the ability to move quickly is likely to be missing out on many lucrative trades. By keeping around a third of your investment fund as cash allows you to buy into a rising market without having to rush into selling any penny stocks that may be under performing at that time.

That way you get to benefit from the rising penny stocks but can also hold onto the non performing or flat ones until they start to rise or you have decided that you need to cut your loses and get rid of them. Either way the point is that you are not rushed into a decision and can decide based on research and rationality, rather than a need for quick cash to fund your next investment.

The ability to move quickly in response to rapidly rising penny stocks can greatly affect your potential for profits in this most volatile of the financial markets. Keeping a portion of your penny stocks fund liquid will help you to achieve profitability and make the success of your investing venture into the world of penny stocks trading more likely to be a profitable one.

Buzz Scott has 12 years of Penny Stock investing. Big profits can be made in Penny Stocks, but there are also many dangers. Find some insider secrets at: http://www.penny-stock-secrets.com

Duct Tape

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Sunday 21 February 2010 12:11 pm

Did you run out to buy that duct tape yet? Don’t forget the plastic sheeting, bottles of water, canned food and a couple of books to read. What are you waiting for? I know – things to get better so you can resume your normal life style.

While you were waiting did you happen to notice what is happening to your investment portfolio, your retirement account? For the past 3 years it has needed duct tape and plastic sheeting to protect it from the poison gas coming from Wall Street. The gases, otherwise known as hot air, are the news flashes the brokers have been telling you. Surely you have heard – the market always comes back, hang in there, you are in for the long term and other such noxious odors have paralyzed investors to keep them from selling. There was one breath of fresh air you have not heard from your broker and is the one bit of pure oxygen that could have saved your account. Listen carefully and you might hear – SELL.

It is a word hardly ever uttered on Wall Street, but one which you should add to your vocabulary if you ever plan to make a profit in the stock market. Brokerage companies don’t want you to sell because they don’t make any money with your account if you are in a money market fund. When your stock or mutual fund started down did you get a call? Even when a stock loses 80% or more of its value they then change their recommendation from Buy to Hold – and you know where you are holding it.

Any fool can buy, but it takes a wise man to sell. Bernard Baruch, one of the most famous traders of all time, said, I always sell too soon. He was enjoying himself reading a paper on a park bench while stocks were crashing in 1929. The DOW lost 89% of it value. We have not been that unfortunate – yet. However, the NASDAQ has dropped almost 80%. If you owned any of those tech stocks and did not have a trailing stop-loss order you have given back all your profit.

It takes more than duct tape to protect yourself from death and destruction and that goes double for the information from brokers and financial planners. If they have kept you in the market these past 3 years with the Buy and Hold mantra don’t you think it is time you plastered some duct tape on them so you can escape that bad gaseous advice? You might not think yourself to be knowledgeable about investing, but surely you would have had enough sense to sell when a stock or fund loses 20, 30, 40% or more of its value. At 50% loss it means it has to go up 100% to get to even. You don’t want to get even; you want to get rich.

Before that poison gas from Wall Street completely kills your account get some fresh air – SELL.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

You Won’t Like This

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Sunday 21 February 2010 8:11 am

Why? Because I am going to shatter your conventional wisdom as I have many times in previous columns about the lies that Wall Street continues to tell you. This time we are going to go deeper into the economy to unearth the truth about lies the politicians are telling you.

Let?s understand from the beginning that few politicians understand basic economics. Just because they work in Washington does not make them experts about the laws that have been passed or those they vote upon. Politicians do not create jobs or wealth. Don?t feel you are the only one who can?t make head or tail out of government statistics.

The most misunderstood debate today is about OUTSOURCING. ? sending our jobs overseas. From March of 2001 to January of 2004 manufacturing jobs declined by 2.6 million ? a loss of 17%. BUT during that same period there was an increase of 17% in worker productivity and only a loss of 3% in jobs. More goods produced with fewer workers. Those jobs did not go overseas ? only 300,000 did. The majority were lost to better machines and will never reappear. If employment efficiency had not increased we would have even higher unemployment today.

That is why unions hate new machines. Loss of jobs. If a company wants to remain competitive they must be able to produce at the least cost or you won?t have a job. Do you think you would have your job today if your company continued to operate they way they did 5 years ago? Employment continues to increase every quarter even though we lose about 7% or 8% of U.S. jobs every quarter.

Has anyone told you that thousands of foreign companies have opened plants in the U.S? We don?t hear about the small ones only the BMWs, Toyotas and Hondas. According to Peter Drucker, management consultant, we import more jobs than we export. Jobs increased by millions after NAFTA and because of NAFTA.

Will these layoffs continue? It depends upon your industry sector. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there were more mass layoffs (50 or more) during this January than any previous January in history – 239,454 ? 1/3rd of those are in manufacturing.

The U.S. is still not producing enough new jobs to keep us even; that requires more than 150,000 new hires each month.

Political demagoguery blames everyone and anyone who is in office. Whoever the president is is the one to blame ? rightly or wrongly. Every industrialized country today has a problem with excess production capacity and is doing weird things to keep their workers on the production line. We are not the only ones with job losses. That does not make the guy in the unemployment line feel any better.

It is our productivity edge that has kept as many jobs as we have now or it would be a lot worse. Free trade is the answer and not tariffs on other country?s goods. As I have written before tariffs are hidden taxes on the consumer and benefit no one. They have NEVER worked in all of history and make more problems than they solve.

Don?t listen to the political rhetoric. You may not like what I have said, but maybe it will start you thinking.

Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

1-888-345-7870; al@mutualfundstrategy.com

How To Evaluate Load Vs. No Load Mutual Funds

Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Sunday 21 February 2010 4:11 am

If you have been dealing with mutual funds for any length of time, you undoubtedly have faced the question of which is better: Load Funds or No Load Funds. If you are new to investing, load simply refers to the commission paid to the broker selling the fund. No load means there is no commission on the purchase or sale.

Most discussions in the past have centered exclusively on performance comparisons. Even rating services like Morningstar have occasionally chimed in with their opinion. However, rather than focusing only on performance, there are some other issues I consider far more important:

  • Who is selling load funds and why?

  • Who markets no load funds?

  • Which one is right for you?

    Who is selling load funds and why? Most load funds are being sold through brokerage houses, financial planners and Registered Representatives. With few exceptions, most of those folks operate on the basis of selling as much product as possible. They collect their commissions up front, as a back end charge, or both (usually in the range of 5 – 6%). Whether you make money or not is not their primary concern. What matters most to those operating under this approach is how often you buy?and thereby generate new commissions for them.

    Who markets no load funds? No Load funds are either marketed directly by the mutual fund companies or, more commonly these days, offered through discount houses like Schwab, Fidelity, and many others. The advantage to this is that you have an unlimited choice of funds in one place and don’t have to open separate accounts for each mutual fund family that you are considering.

    Most fee based investment advisors, like myself, have independent relationships with such major discount firms and are able to offer clients just about any no load mutual fund available. They receive no compensation from the firm and only get paid by the client at a pre-determined fee arrangement. Under this arrangement, there is no hidden motivation to sell you a particular fund or to try and sell more in order to get a larger commission.

    Which one is right for you? Whether you prefer dealing with someone selling load funds or an advisor getting you into no loads, let me make one thing very clear: You can make money or lose money either way! Why?

    Let?s assume for the moment that there is no difference in performance between the types of funds?some of either kind will do well and some of either kind won’t. What then determines the successful outcome of you buying either a load or a no load fund?

    The key is the advice you?re getting. And the fact is that many brokerage houses and Registered Representatives tend to be more interested in their profits than yours. Their investment advice is generally centered around Buy and Hold or dollar cost averaging and similar financially questionable recommendations. Hardly ever will you receive advice about when and why you should exit the market, either because of accumulated profits or to limit your losses. Getting out of the market is simply not in their best interest, though it may be in yours.

    I must confess that, as a fee based advisor, I am somewhat biased and I prefer no load funds for my clients. I believe that this type of arrangement is best for all parties involved. It allows me to avoid any conflict of interest and to work exclusively for my clients? financial benefit. And the better my clients do, the better I do.

    I am able to choose no load funds and make buy decisions solely on the basis of my mutual fund trend tracking methodology. Following its signals, I can get clients into the market or out of it as often as is necessary to maximize profit or protect assets. And because I work with no load funds, other than a very occasional short term redemption fee, there are no transaction charges no matter how many times we move into or out of the market.

    If market conditions dictate that we stand aside in a money market for an extended time in order to avoid a bear market (as was the case from 10/13/2000 to 4/28/2003), I can advise that because it is in the best interest of my client. I am always thinking about what will benefit my client, not worrying about lost commissions. (Please see my article ?How we eluded the Bear in 2000? at http://www.successful-investment.com/articles12.htm.

    Bottom line: Load fund vs. No Load mutual fund shouldn?t be the issue. Having a methodical plan and reliable advice as to when to buy and when to sell is far more important and will help you to secure a prosperous financial future.

    ? by Ulli G. Niemann

    About The Author

    Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has written about methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He avoided the bear market of 2000 and has helped countless people make better investment decisions. Subscribe to his free newsletter: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

  • Box Of Chocolates

    Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Saturday 20 February 2010 8:11 pm

    Ever have one of those sample boxes of candy? Each little piece is beautifully wrapped in colorful foil or decorated with an interesting design. Taste just one. So good! One more. And another. Before you know it the box is empty. Nothing left.

    This upmove in the stock market is very tempting – and could leave you with a tummy ache.

    All the market experts are telling you that the bull market is back and to get your buying clothes on. Open your wallet and get in before it is too late. Mr. Schwab says it is dangerous to be out of the market. There are great values out there. These stocks are so low they can’t go any lower. And there is a Santa Claus and an Easter Bunny.

    There is one position I do advocate, but most broker and financial planners won’t like it. It is called CASH. No broker believes cash is a position. They say you must always be invested. It seems they have forgotten that investing means making money and another important part of investing means not losing money.

    For the last month we have seen the market go up and some of you have seen some of your money come back. Not too much, but some. You want desperately to believe the bull market is back and your winnings will be restored. I sure hope so. Just suppose this is what is called a rally in a bear market and that it will not last. Then what? You don’t want to see your investments slip away again, do you? You don’t know if it is a good idea to sell now or wait. Your broker won’t be any help.

    There is a solution. Stay with your stocks and mutual funds as long as they are going up, but sell them if they go down. How? Every Friday after the close you get the settlement prices of your various issues and you then call your broker Monday morning to put in a Good Til Cancelled Stop-Loss Order that is approximately 10% below that closing price. As long as the stock is going up you follow this procedure every week and eventually you will be stopped out. Never move your stop down. You no longer have to guess if this is the highest price that your stock will reach. The stock itself will tell you.

    Now you have cash and, if you want to, you can buy a better stock or mutual fund that is going up..

    When you pick out a new chocolate (stock) do it carefully and don’t try to eat the whole box at once. Sometimes it is best to put the box (your cash) away so you can come back to it another day.

    Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

    Copyright 2005

    al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

    Stock Market Insanity

    Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Saturday 20 February 2010 8:11 am

    Let?s first define insanity. It is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. And that is what most investors do and they can?t understand why they are not able to make money in the stock market.

    Do these investors need a psychiatrist, a psychologist, a talk with their minister or none of the above? I know, you think they should talk to their broker or their financial planner. Believe me, folks, these two are part of the problem and not the solution.

    If they knew the answers everyone would be rich. Let?s go back and look at who taught these mavens how to invest. The Wall Street brokerage houses taught them or rather did not teach them the most basic rules of the game. Why? Because brokerage houses want you to buy (for commission) and they do not want you to sell even though that means another commission. There are two basic reasons they don?t want you to sell and it has nothing to do with that one selling commission.

    If you sell you might take your money out of your account and that is one of the things the Maul Street crowd never wants to happen, but the most important is they make money when your account is invested. It is not a lot, but it in a nice steady 1% or more. You are their unspoken collateral in the worldwide money shuffle.

    Any broker who suggests a customer sell is usually chastised in some way or just plain fired. A broker who allows large sums of cash to accumulate in customers accounts is told to invest (?) it or hit the road. The house (that?s the brokerage firm) does not want to see customers with big cash balances although there are times when that is exactly where they should be. Remember 2000 to 2003? During that three year period wouldn?t it have been better for your account to have had no stock or fund positions?

    Brokers or financial planners are not taught simple methods to protect customer funds. And I mean simple. Too many folks during the 2000 debacle lost 40% of their money and more. There was absolutely no reason for this if basic money management techniques were instituted.

    Customers could be made aware that they should not give back more than 10%, maybe as much as 15%, of their portfolio value when the stock market goes in the tank. That occurs on a regular basis. Declines in equities of 20% to 40% happen regularly and no customer should be mesmerized into holding during those periods.

    During the 2000-2001 period there were less than 3% recommendations by brokers to sell and those sells were after the stock had crashed about 80% to 90%. It is too late then. Your money is gone. If brokers and financial planners had been taught to advise people to place 10% stop loss orders their retirement accounts they would be much fatter today.

    Stop doing the same thing over and over again because of bad advice. Learn to sell when your position goes negative. Don?t be one of the insane.

    Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

    Copyright 2005

    al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

    Quality Investment Information: Standing Firm In The Face Of Opposition

    Posted by Mutual-Funds | Uncategorized | Saturday 20 February 2010 4:11 am

    THERE?S SOMETHING TO BE SAID FOR standing firm in the face of opposition. Interestingly, most of the best stock decisions have come at times when the mainstream is saying precisely the opposite. Predictions like these can be valuable if one is to build an investment strategy around their view of the world.

    The appraisal by the minority over the past few years that inflation would return (while most of Wall Street was bemoaning DEflation) has proven to be true. As we?ve pointed out in the past, it can be readily observed in oil prices, real estate, and dozens of other commodities where no source of cheap imports is available.

    As Steve Forbes remarks in Forbes Magazine?s May 23rd commentary, ?oil became expensive because the Fed has been printing too much money.? In an earlier article, I mentioned that what we?re really seeing is just the effect of a falling dollar, rather than rising oil prices.

    Some might wonder how we think of the dollar as a falling currency, because it certainly seems to have been rising against the Euro in recent months. Still, it may be more accurate to think of the Euro as simply falling faster than the dollar. Indeed, now that both France and the Netherlands have voted to reject the EU Constitution, the entire structure of the EU may be called into question, and while we don?t foresee the collapse of that institution, we do believe it will weigh on the currency for a time. As we have said in the past, the attempt at unification is itself no more than a grand experiment, and the currency that accompanies it can be viewed as no more stable than the underlying structure.

    Still, none of this makes us view the dollar as necessarily strong. In a world where the Indian Rupee, Romanian Leu, South African Rand and other historically undependable currencies are rising steadily against the dollar, its silly to think of our currency as anything but weak.

    In real estate, many suggested in the past that a real estate bubble may be developing, but also that much of the rise in prices may be coming from inflation as well. Indeed, if any price collapse does occur, it may be some time from now, and some regions may hardly feel it. The gap in price between the large California cities and mainstream America is reportedly wider than ever before. It’s best to use caution in the red-hot markets in Cali, NY, and Mass., but the rest of the country seems fairly priced. One should not be too worried about prices that have risen no faster than the price of oil. While others have predicted (endlessly, it seems) that homebuilders ought to fall apart any day now, a few have continued to recommend some of the best ones and seen sizeable profits result for our readers.

    Recently, a few financial managers have decided to take a position on Harley-Davidson stock that differs from most of the investment community. While Harley?s quarterly earnings were indeed below expectations, the minority rejects the investment community?s hysterical suggestion that this is the end for the motorcycle maker. In fact, they firmly believe this will turn out to be a small blip in the longterm upward trend.

    It is decisions like these that set these advisors apart from much of the investment world. It seems that many of the writers in ?investment-land? are content to parrot the projections of corporate lackeys and government bureaucrats, without so much as a scintilla of independent analysis. Alas, as the demand for investment advice has grown, it may have outstripped the supply of quality analysts, both in news reporting and in the investment industry itself. This would explain the quantity of drivel coming from multiple sources these days.

    We can occasionally find kindred spirits in the media: while it is invariably best to disagree with Business Week, Fortune, and most of the TV business news-trivia reporters, a few ? like Forbes, Barron?s, or TV?s Louis Rukeyser or Paul Kangas ? still provide thoughtful commentary from time to time. Overall, though, the U.S seems to have reached a distressing time in investment reporting.

    Most reporters and publications are content to simply repeat what they?ve heard, play on emotions, and call it complete coverage. I suppose it makes sense that eventually coverage of business news would descend to the same level as broader news coverage.

    In times like these, it is important to select a few good sources of quality information. It is just as important to wean ourselves from poor information sources. If your newspaper, magazine, or broadcast station has ceased offering thoughtful analysis, stop wasting your valuable time. Utilize your time more productively on the few meaningful sources of information.

    In light of so much fluff in the media, it is increasingly important to stand apart from the mainstream. You need information resources that are willing to do so, as well. Contrarians (investors who have bucked the trends) have fared well in the investing quandary. Today, contrarians? biggest advantage is that they are willing to stand out and avoid falling for the latest hype. Mindless followers, in an age of meaningless information, will eventually get slaughtered by following mediocre advice once too often. Don?t tolerate lackluster information resources. Seek out quality.

    To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Advisor services, visit http://www.valueview.net

    Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor’s Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.

    The Club

    Posted by Mutual-Funds | Stocks | Friday 19 February 2010 8:11 pm

    Yesterday I received my monthly issue of MONEY magazine. This issue has the special feature called ?The Ultimate Investment Club? that highlights their picks for the top mutual fund managers. Let?s see how their members made money for their shareholders.

    My readers know that the only thing that counts in my book is performance and performance means they make money and do NOT lose money so I went back to preview their record since these experts took over. When you see the results of this club you will be glad you did not go on any camping trips with them. Here are six who manage stock mutual funds.

    As we go along you must keep in mind that fund managers get paid for the amount of money they have under management and not on how much they make for you.

    MONEY magazine has given them titles. I will not mention their names, but will give you the fund along with the stock exchange symbol so you can look it up on the Internet at www.bigcharts.com.

    ?The Survivor? who manages Seligman Communications Fund (SCICX) since it was founded has seen the share price start at $35 and rise to $54 only to fall back to $15 today. He is surviving with your money, but you are not.

    ?The Value Master? of Legg Mason Value Trust (LMNVX) sure doesn?t know when the value has run out. Under his tutelage the fund has gone from $45 to $78 to $43.

    ?The Maverick? of CGM Capital Development (LOMCX) has been thrown by his horse. Share price in 1976 started at $10, went to $43 and is now $18. Tough ride for the shareholders.

    Now we come to ?The Bargain Hunter? who took over management of Oakmark Select (OAKMX) in 2000 when the market was at its peak. It was $22 and went up (!) to $37 and is now trading at $32. He is the only winner in the group. Congratulations.

    Another loser is ?The Opportunist?. This guy should be getting his buy recommendations from cab drivers. He could not do any worse for the Strong Opportunity Fund (SOPVX). It started at $45 and has nothing but a downward journey to its present $29.

    For the Brandywine Fund (BRWIX) we have ?The Growth Guru?. The only thing that grew fat was his wallet off of your money. He took over in 1998 at $45 and it went down to $22 in 1999, then up to $53 and is now $20. Actually he can only be given credit for the advance from $45 to $53.

    In all fairness to these losers I did not include any capital gains or dividend payouts which during the few good years they had may have been very good, but probably not good enough to keep you at ?even?.

    There are all kinds of clubs you can join, but obviously this is not one for you. When you see advertising for various mutual funds or how wonderful some fund manager is please look beyond the hype and check out the performance.

    Al Thomas’ book, If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It! has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

    1-888-345-7870; al@mutualfundstrategy.com

    The Stock Market Is A Roller Coaster: Prepare For The Ups And Downs

    Posted by Mutual-Funds | Uncategorized | Friday 19 February 2010 4:11 pm

    IT?S REMINISCENT OF THE OLD children?s tale about an old Chinese farmer who tells his friends his story, and they enjoin with ?That?s good? or ?That?s bad? on alternating lines:

    Farmer: My horse ran away.

    Friends: That?s bad.

    Farmer: She came back with a majestic stallion by her side.

    Friends: That?s good.

    Farmer: My son tried to ride the stallion and broke his hip.

    Friends: That?s bad.

    Farmer: The emperor came through town that week and took every able-bodied young man away to war. My son was spared.

    Friends: That?s good, et cetera.

    Recent market trends bring this story to mind. On this emotional roller coaster, it?s hard to know whether to laugh or cry. For all practical purposes, the war is over. That?s good. But the battle to win over Iraq has just begun. That?s bad. The markets in the U.S. have been cheered by the quick success. Good. The Japanese market has hit a new 20-year low. Bad. We could go on. It?s been a wild month for news.

    Fears of the SARS epidemic have hit economies in East Asia and Canada and further injured an already-weakened airline industry. A bigger question is how devastating the epidemic will become, and will it hinder an already weak recovery, or worse yet become a worldwide epidemic. Embezzlement charges caused a temporary bank run among recent immigrants who weren?t aware of FDIC insurance at Abacus Federal Savings Bank in New York?s Chinatown. Earnings news is rather positive, despite a few negatives. Many big names have provided surprises on the upside, while fewer companies are disappointing analysts, it seems.

    Despite the recent uptrend in U.S. markets, most investors aren?t particularly cheered. Most still wonder how long it will take to recover what was lost in the past few years. That focus, however, won?t make the recovery come any sooner. We need to be happy with 10% growth, a substantial positive trend for those who aren?t carrying any baggage. Too, for those who put their money in, instead of following the crowd and taking it out, 10% growth ought to compensate for twice the losses. The real question is whether individual investors will continue to run for the exits, hold their ground, or redouble their efforts to save and invest more.

    I?m continually amazed how investors put more money in when markets are topping out, and pull money back when markets are at or near bottoms. Described in that way, virtually no one would do it, but when we add the emotional component, it is really quite easy to understand. Market bottoms come after drops, which often come with reduced portfolio values and emotional turmoil. In addition, drops come when the economy is weak, and many people need to use their money for personal or family needs while income is temporarily reduced. This underlies the primary weakness of the buy-and-hold strategy. This solid strategy is only successful if held to consistently. However, most people cannot or will not follow through on it in difficult times. Thus, it may be less effective than we traditionally imagine. No, the strategy itself is not flawed, but practically speaking, it may not be viable for real life.

    Each investor needs to consider his/her own investing patterns. If you are inclined to disinvest during downtimes, a thorough re-evaluation may be in line. Re-evaluate both your strategy choices and your ability to maintain them. If you are unable to keep focused or are likely to have circumstance which prevent you from following your strategy when its most important, you need a different approach. There?s no benefit to having a wonderful game-plan that you can?t follow. Imagine a basketball coach whose plan includes putting in Michael Jordan when the team gets behind, but Michael Jordan isn?t on the team! If you are unable to follow a buy-and-hold strategy, your ability to profit in downtimes is severely restrained. Sadly, this is when the greatest opportunity is available. Thus, a compensating strategy must be developed.

    Investors must realize, however, that increasing returns often comes with higher risk. Thus, if one cannot buy and hold when one finds it unpleasant, the other alternatives involve taking on greater risk. No one really wants to hear that, but it is hard truth. High returns require higher risk, and if you are unable to ?weather the storm? in times like this (what I call easy risk), you?ll need to take larger short-term risks (hard risk), or else consign oneself to lower returns.

    Easy risk is a long-term safety play. We risk that valuations will fluctuate, but over the long term we have confidence that they will be relatively stable. We give up our ability to observe high valuations, knowing that what we own is still the same.

    Hard risk involves taking real, serious, short-term gambles. It is not a strategy that I advise, nor is it the wisest approach to investing, but it is a corner that people sometimes paint themselves into. That?s bad!

    We continue to advise our readers to stick with the buy-and-hold strategy. While there is obviously risk of fluctuating prices, these tend to balance themselves out in the long-run. If you have a long-run focus, buy-and hold is still the safest approach. That?s good!

    To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Advisor Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

    Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor’s Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.